VAN NATTA (3/27/06): The memo also shows that the president and the prime minister acknowledged that no unconventional weapons had been found inside Iraq. Faced with the possibility of not finding any before the planned invasion, Mr. Bush talked about several ways to provoke a confrontation, including a proposal to paint a United States surveillance plane in the colors of the United Nations in hopes of drawing fire, or assassinating Mr. Hussein.Say what? Bush was seeking a stage a phony event as a way to provoke a confrontation? As Daou writes, The implications are staggering, but the nation's collective response has been [a] big yawn.
Those proposals were first reported last month in the British press, but the memo does not make clear whether they reflected Mr. Bush's extemporaneous suggestions, or were elements of the government's plan.
We strongly recommend Daous report. But well add two more observations.
First: That big yawn has also been the general reaction of the activist liberal web. The authenticity of this memo hasnt been challenged, and the conduct it describes is truly remarkable. Bush was willing to stage a fake event to get the nation into a war? If true, this report is astounding (and it provides a nice echo of the Tonkin Gulf incident). In our view, liberals should be talking about nothing else—if this report is true. But our activist web is currently busy cherry-picking silly quotes and engaging in standard Free-Floating Hysteria. Over the past year, the activist liberal web has sometimes gone to great lengths to showcase its bad political judgment. Its low-grade reaction to this report strikes us as an example.
Second: Does anyone actually understand the logic of this report? According to Van Natta, Bush wanted to paint a United States surveillance plane in the colors of the United Nations in hopes of drawing fire. But why would painting the plane have drawn fire? And how would that fire have led us to war? Weve seen this incident reported in many places—but weve seen no one explain its logic. In this mornings Times, for example, a letter describes the scheme thusly:
LETTER TO THE NEW YORK TIMES (3/29/06): The memo from the Bush-Blair meeting in January 2003 attributes an idea to President Bush:But in what way would this scheme have provided the pretext for starting the war? Obviously, the UN would have known that this wasnt its plane; and, if were not mistaken, Iraq had fired on US planes fairly often. (The no-fly zones were not UN-sponsored.) How would these events have led on to war? Indeed, wouldnt any such event have painted Bush as a faker and schemer?
A United States surveillance plane painted in United Nations colors would fly over Iraq; the Iraqis would shoot at the decoy, and voilà, the pretext for starting the war.
Laugh or cry, but admit that this scheme would have eliminated all those alternatives: the weapons of mass destruction, the ties to terrorists and the spreading of democracy.
Daou says we live in a bizarre time. With that view, we surely agree. But heres part of what makes this time so bizarre: Newspapers publish startling reports—and make no attempt to lay out their logic. No one has challenged this five-page memo. But how was this scheme supposed to work?
Special report—Why Ruben cant read!
PART 3—IS RUBEN ACTUALLY LEARNING: Is Ruben Jimenez learning to read in his three daily reading classes? As Sam Dillon explained in Sundays New York Times—he wrote the papers front-page lead story—Ruben is a seventh-grader at Sacramentos King Junior High, a school which has eliminated science and history for kids who are struggling with reading and math. Rubén studies English for the first three periods, and pre-algebra and math during the fourth and fifth, Dillon wrote (see THE DAILY HOWLER, 3/27/06). Well be honest; we find it hard to imagine what Rubens teachers are doing during those three daily reading classes—unless theyre offering the tedious, drill-based instruction described in the letter to the New York Times which we quoted yesterday (see THE DAILY HOWLER, 3/28/06). Rubens school has dropped history and science so it can teach more reading? To us, that sounds like a category mistake; its a bit like hearing that King dropped basketball so it could teach more gym. Another letter in yesterdays Times lays out the puzzle:
LETTER TO THE NEW YORK TIMES (3/28/06): As a longtime reading educator, I share the concern expressed in your article that reading and math are shortchanging other subjects. This development is as bad for reading as it is for science and social studies....Reading must be about something, the writer notes, before lapsing into a bit of jargon. Lets be clearer: Traditionally, students have read about Frederick Douglass and Cesar Chavez—and yes, theyve read about tadpoles and frogs. To us, it seems like an odd idea—dropping science so you can teach more reading. But that said, we should ask the basic question—does this strategy seem to be working? Is Ruben Jimenez learning to read in the course of his three daily classes?
Reading and writing must always be about something, and the something comes from subject-matter pedagogy—not from more practicing of reading "skills.
About Ruben, of course, theres no way to know. But Dillon did review test scores from King Junior High in the course of his front-page report. And alas! Here, as in other aspects of his report, his work is barely competent.
What has happened at King Junior High since history and science classes were dropped? Dillon starts with this assessment:
DILLON (3/27/06): At King Junior High, in a poor neighborhood in Sacramento a few miles from a decommissioned Air Force base, the intensive reading and math classes have raised test scores for several years running. That has helped Larry Buchanan, the superintendent of the Grant Joint Union High School District, which oversees the school, to be selected by an administrators' group as California's 2005 superintendent of the year.Kings intensive reading/math classes have raised test scores for several years running, Dillon writes. But how on earth does Dillon know that? As weve often noted, there are various ways in which test scores can rise; even in cases where scores do improve, it will rarely be clear why that happened. And as Dillon himself notes, Kings intensive math and reading classes dont affect the school as a whole; this new approach only affects the schools lower-achieving kids—about 150 of the school's 885 students. That said, how can Dillon possibly say that this approach has produced higher test scores? Almost surely, he cant justify such a judgment. But so what? Its repeated in one of the Times photo captions: Devars Dean, left, and Inerik Salas, seventh graders at King Junior High, where intensive reading and math classes have raised test scores (our emphasis).
Have Rubens intensive classes produced score gains? Its hard to say, and as Dillon continues, he seems to say that Kings score gains have been slight. Are the new instructional strategies working? Get a load of the schools passing rates:
DILLON (continuing directly): But in spite of the progress, the school's scores on California state exams, used for compliance with the federal law, are increasing not nearly fast enough to allow the school to keep up with the rising test benchmarks. On the math exams administered last spring, for instance, 17.4 percent of students scored at the proficient level or above, and on the reading exams, only 14.9 percent.Of course, if this remedial instruction were raising test scores, why wouldnt King want to continue the program? Meanwhile, lets note a basic point. The intensive classes to which Dillon refers affect (roughly) the bottom sixth of the schools students. But the passing rates which he cites are being achieved by (roughly) the top sixth of Kings students. Is there any sign that the kids who receive the extra math/reading classes are among the kids who are scoring proficient? Dillon makes no such claim—but in typical who-gives-a-crap-about-this-subject-anyway fashion, the Times goes ahead and declares, on page one, that the extra math/reading classes have been raising test scores.
With scores still so low, Mr. Harris, the school's principal, and Mr. Buchanan said they had little alternative but to continue remedial instruction for the lower-achieving among the school's nearly 900 students.
Have the extra classes helped kids like Ruben? Dillon presents no relevant evidence. That said, it might be worth looking at Kings passing rates on recent state math/reading tests.
Lets start by asking a basic question—is it true that Kings passing rates are still so low? So it would seem, when only 15 percent of the schools students are proficient or better on the states reading tests. Indeed, it might seem hard to imagine how much progress King could be making, just to reach this low point. But remember—school passing rates cant be assessed in isolation. And Dillon makes no effort to tell us what Kings passing rates were like in the past—or to tell us what passing rates are currently like in California schools as a whole.
Has King made progress in the past several years? In fact, Kings passing rates have improved—but only from a very low starting point. And its passing rates still lag far behind the rates of the state as a whole. Indeed, since passing rates have improved a fair amount for the state as a whole, its possible that Kings improved passing rates simply reflect an easier set of tests.
Example: In 2001, only 8 percent of King seventh-graders scored proficient or advanced in reading. By 2005, the figure had risen to 13 percent. But statewide, the proficiency or better rate was going up too—from 32 percent in 2001 to 43 percent in 2005. Are Californias seventh-grade rs reading better these days? Or has the state test become a bit easier? Theres no way to tell from these data—and theres no way to know what may have produced Kings jump from 8 percent to 13. But again, since these are Kings highest-achieving students—and the since the program in question affects the schools lowest-achieving students—these proficiency rates almost surely dont tell us about the programs success.
Are kids like Ruben learning to read as they take their three daily classes? Twice, the Times says this new program is helping—but nothing in Dillons report supports this claim. Readers of the New York Times continue to read in the dark.
TOMORROW—PART 4: Again: Why it can be very hard to give Ruben books about frogs.